DYNAMICS OF THE CHINESE URBANIZATION BASED ON NONPARAMETRIC MODELS

Abstract

This paper provides an estimation model with errors-in-variables ob- servation; it studies the density function of Chinese urbanization develop- ment level. The model comes to the conclusions given below: the impacts of GDP, population and rural-urban income gap reduce the probability of observed real urbanization in early stage while increase that of middle stage through the whole process of urbanization in China, which means lots of uncertainties during the early stage of urbanization process; the impact of each factor accelerates the urbanization process with their in- tensities ranking as GDP, population and rural-urban income gap. The empirical results of 28 provincial cities and separate planning cities re- veal that a moderate enlargement of rural-urban income gap will help to accelerate the urbanization process.